Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.752627 2.931208 3.127333 3.361200 3.635985 3.953353 4.355171
2025-03-02 2.500169 2.734144 3.007278 3.357760 3.809073 4.393231 5.253131
2025-03-09 2.333873 2.596668 2.916198 3.348143 3.944892 4.795800 6.247911
2025-03-16 2.193183 2.467969 2.811335 3.292767 3.993558 5.073950 7.186923
2025-03-23 2.124412 2.418643 2.796971 3.348871 4.201718 5.650202 9.101180
2025-03-30 2.018937 2.312206 2.694879 3.264950 4.175447 5.813273 10.287878
2025-04-06 1.924723 2.213663 2.594702 3.171141 4.115004 5.891678 11.376002
2025-04-13 1.853601 2.141137 2.524492 3.113853 4.104972 6.067925 13.149708
2025-04-20 1.824023 2.121896 2.526218 3.164817 4.289527 6.736834 19.510263
2025-04-27 1.812979 2.126469 2.561082 3.270371 4.595277 7.887885 54.118483
2025-05-04 1.774474 2.090693 2.534241 3.271658 4.697844 8.564002 NaN
2025-05-11 1.739848 2.058470 2.510294 3.274818 4.804716 9.354418 NaN
2025-05-18 1.682119 1.992736 2.434699 3.186680 4.707986 9.376446 NaN
2025-05-25 1.651825 1.964880 2.415154 3.195057 4.830679 10.437181 NaN
2025-06-01 1.620334 1.933871 2.388856 3.188714 4.918875 11.507525 NaN
2025-06-08 1.581284 1.890428 2.341044 3.139230 4.893749 11.982166 NaN
2025-06-15 1.567200 1.882419 2.347717 3.189929 5.130992 14.677343 NaN
2025-06-22 1.526947 1.834751 2.289558 3.114210 5.022206 14.575790 NaN
2025-06-29 1.486687 1.786068 2.228224 3.029293 4.879380 14.065800 NaN
2025-07-06 1.455313 1.749679 2.185304 2.977299 4.820853 14.319036 NaN
2025-07-13 1.446103 1.745560 2.193530 3.023559 5.041924 18.182248 NaN
2025-07-20 1.446801 1.756002 2.225516 3.119114 5.437886 30.275848 NaN
2025-07-27 1.429311 1.738592 2.211070 3.120277 5.546209 41.647618 NaN